Bubble?

zeke1312 · 05-16-2007, 11:51 AM

Do you think the bubble will pop on Luger pricing and we actually see a downward trend on prices?

Maybe prices in one category but not others be it era, condition, etc? I'm pondering whether I may have paid the upper limit or over the top on some I own and with a potential for lower prices, I'll be "upside down" on my collection. What are your thoughts?

policeluger · 05-16-2007, 11:53 AM

don't hold your breath

Navy · 05-16-2007, 11:57 AM

Econ 101. Fixed supply, increasing demand. Price curve goes only one way.

Tom A

zeke1312 · 05-16-2007, 06:56 PM

I like the answers!

Edward Tinker · 05-16-2007, 07:09 PM

Over the last 2 or 3 years I bought some older Shattuck, Simpson, Hoffman and other lists. Although a few prices were higher than I expected 8 or 10 years ago, the climb has been steady, high some years, lower some years, but always higher.

I think that unless you waaay over paid, you'll be okay. What do they say, I didn't over pay, I just bought too soon

davidkachel · 05-17-2007, 06:40 PM

There is only one set of circumstances under which gun values will go down, Lugers in particular:
Economic disaster. In which case, though you might not be able to sell those Lugers, you may just need 'em for something other than decoration.

George Anderson · 05-17-2007, 07:03 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by davidkachel
There is only one set of circumstances under which gun values will go down, Lugers in particular:
Economic disaster. In which case, though you might not be able to sell those Lugers, you may just need 'em for something other than decoration.

I beg to differ. In the event that our political masters in the House and Senate decide to limit our freedom to buy or own such items the price will fall. Even a permit arrangement such as the C&R will have that effect by reducing the market.

davidkachel · 05-17-2007, 09:26 PM

George,
I stand corrected... TWO sets of circumstances, both of which would likely make those weapons needed for a higher purpose.

crc · 05-18-2007, 12:46 AM

In my case it doesn't really matter. I haven't collected lugers for an investment ... I collect them because I like them. My children are already fighting over who will get my luger collection upon my demise. I suppose I will not be allowed to sell any of them. Therefore I will not see any return on my investment Ha ha ha. Randy

Imperial Arms · 05-18-2007, 03:06 AM

In my opinion, the future value of Lugers will depend on how many new wealthy collectors enter the market. There will always be a large market for Lugers priced between $2k-$10k, but once the value goes over $25k-$30k, the number of buyers dramatically drops to a handful.

Lugers are not a good investment in the long term (10-20 years), but better in the short term. Part of the investment is also the enjoyment a collector receives from one piece or a collection. Unless a collector is able to buy a Luger at a 'steal', which is occurring less as a result of the increasing use of the Internet, the possibility of finding a great item to create a good investment is decreasing.

Good luck in the treasure hunt,
Albert

policeluger · 05-18-2007, 09:26 AM

How can something be a good/better "short term" investment, but not a "long term" investment ?.....if it is good in the short term, make sense that long term is just several short terms put together.....from a long term collector/investor

davidkachel · 05-18-2007, 12:13 PM

We are all lying to ourselves. "Investment" is one of those words we use simply to justify to ourselves our desire to own these guns. If they were really investments, that would mean we plan to one day "cash out" on these guns in order to reap the profits. I don't think anyone here, certainly not myself, has any intention of doing so. Only our heirs will consider cashing out our collections.
So, "investment" really plays no role at all.
We all play the "what's it worth compared to what I paid for it" game, but the truth is we don't give a damn and won't turn a gun into a real-world investment by selling it unless we decide that the cash it represents can buy more guns we desire more greatly (or some financial emergency forces us to part with guns we otherwise would not have considered selling).

policeluger · 05-18-2007, 12:20 PM

You wrong David, on both accounts, hang around a few more years and there will be one nice police Luger collection, along with all the extras and books, go on the market.....it was always collected with an eye for investing with the fun of collecting and cashing out someday.....its getting closer. investing always plays a big roll....

tracyp · 05-18-2007, 12:46 PM

David,

I fall into the category you described. Lugers have gone up in value, but as an investment there are better ones. I only use the term "investment" to my wife and she doesn't believe me. As far as buying and selling to make money, I can make more money working.

Maybe when I retire I might sell some of them. But if you don't need the money, why sell them?

Tracy

05-16-2007, 11:51 AM	#1
zeke1312 User Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 167 Thanks: 0 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	Bubble? Do you think the bubble will pop on Luger pricing and we actually see a downward trend on prices? Maybe prices in one category but not others be it era, condition, etc? I'm pondering whether I may have paid the upper limit or over the top on some I own and with a potential for lower prices, I'll be "upside down" on my collection. What are your thoughts?

05-16-2007, 07:09 PM	#5
Edward Tinker Super Moderator Eternal Lifer LugerForum Patron Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: North of Spokane, WA Posts: 15,960 Thanks: 2,062 Thanked 4,592 Times in 2,114 Posts	Over the last 2 or 3 years I bought some older Shattuck, Simpson, Hoffman and other lists. Although a few prices were higher than I expected 8 or 10 years ago, the climb has been steady, high some years, lower some years, but always higher. I think that unless you waaay over paid, you'll be okay. What do they say, I didn't over pay, I just bought too soon __________________ Edward Tinker ************ Co-Author of Police Lugers - Co-Author of Simson Lugers Author of Veteran Bring Backs Vol I, Vol II, Vol III and Vol IV

05-17-2007, 06:40 PM	#6
davidkachel User Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Texas Posts: 784 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	There is only one set of circumstances under which gun values will go down, Lugers in particular: Economic disaster. In which case, though you might not be able to sell those Lugers, you may just need 'em for something other than decoration. __________________ A heroin habit would be cheaper.

05-17-2007, 09:26 PM	#8
davidkachel User Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Texas Posts: 784 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	George, I stand corrected... TWO sets of circumstances, both of which would likely make those weapons needed for a higher purpose. __________________ A heroin habit would be cheaper.

05-18-2007, 12:13 PM	#12
davidkachel User Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Texas Posts: 784 Thanks: 0 Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts	We are all lying to ourselves. "Investment" is one of those words we use simply to justify to ourselves our desire to own these guns. If they were really investments, that would mean we plan to one day "cash out" on these guns in order to reap the profits. I don't think anyone here, certainly not myself, has any intention of doing so. Only our heirs will consider cashing out our collections. So, "investment" really plays no role at all. We all play the "what's it worth compared to what I paid for it" game, but the truth is we don't give a damn and won't turn a gun into a real-world investment by selling it unless we decide that the cash it represents can buy more guns we desire more greatly (or some financial emergency forces us to part with guns we otherwise would not have considered selling). __________________ A heroin habit would be cheaper.

05-16-2007, 11:53 AM	#2
policeluger RIP Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Ca. Posts: 2,141 Thanks: 8 Thanked 89 Times in 54 Posts	don't hold your breath

05-16-2007, 11:57 AM	#3
Navy RIP Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Dc 'burbs in Virginia Posts: 2,482 Thanks: 0 Thanked 16 Times in 10 Posts	Econ 101. Fixed supply, increasing demand. Price curve goes only one way. Tom A

05-16-2007, 06:56 PM	#4
zeke1312 User Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 167 Thanks: 0 Thanked 1 Time in 1 Post	I like the answers!

05-18-2007, 12:46 AM	#9
crc User Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: colorado Posts: 66 Thanks: 6 Thanked 2 Times in 2 Posts	In my case it doesn't really matter. I haven't collected lugers for an investment ... I collect them because I like them. My children are already fighting over who will get my luger collection upon my demise. I suppose I will not be allowed to sell any of them. Therefore I will not see any return on my investment Ha ha ha. Randy

05-18-2007, 03:06 AM	#10
Imperial Arms Banned Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Malta, EU Posts: 579 Thanks: 0 Thanked 7 Times in 7 Posts	In my opinion, the future value of Lugers will depend on how many new wealthy collectors enter the market. There will always be a large market for Lugers priced between $2k-$10k, but once the value goes over $25k-$30k, the number of buyers dramatically drops to a handful. Lugers are not a good investment in the long term (10-20 years), but better in the short term. Part of the investment is also the enjoyment a collector receives from one piece or a collection. Unless a collector is able to buy a Luger at a 'steal', which is occurring less as a result of the increasing use of the Internet, the possibility of finding a great item to create a good investment is decreasing. Good luck in the treasure hunt, Albert

05-18-2007, 09:26 AM	#11
policeluger RIP Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Ca. Posts: 2,141 Thanks: 8 Thanked 89 Times in 54 Posts	How can something be a good/better "short term" investment, but not a "long term" investment ?.....if it is good in the short term, make sense that long term is just several short terms put together.....from a long term collector/investor

05-18-2007, 12:20 PM	#13
policeluger RIP Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Ca. Posts: 2,141 Thanks: 8 Thanked 89 Times in 54 Posts	You wrong David, on both accounts, hang around a few more years and there will be one nice police Luger collection, along with all the extras and books, go on the market.....it was always collected with an eye for investing with the fun of collecting and cashing out someday.....its getting closer. investing always plays a big roll....

05-18-2007, 12:46 PM	#14
tracyp User Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Peoples Republic of Kalifornia Posts: 391 Thanks: 0 Thanked 2 Times in 2 Posts	David, I fall into the category you described. Lugers have gone up in value, but as an investment there are better ones. I only use the term "investment" to my wife and she doesn't believe me. As far as buying and selling to make money, I can make more money working. Maybe when I retire I might sell some of them. But if you don't need the money, why sell them? Tracy