Luger vrs Inflation~

[cirelaw]

I wondered if anyone has tracked the prices of the more popular types of lugers in the past few years. Are there any types that increased in value more than others? Are any becoming more rare or more valuable?? Any the same questions for accessories, IE holsters, drums, loaders or stocks, etc. Are they keeping pace with inflation?

[DavidJayUden]

This is all off-the-cuff, but it appears to me that drums have fallen, probably with the availability of repop. shooter drums.
The meat and potatoes guns, especially WW2 guns, have gone up a bit since the 2008 dip. But 20% at the most. Black Widows seem to be up too. Haven't noticed as much interest in the WW1 guns but good stuff always commands a premium.
dju

[Douglas Jr.]

There is a place where I can find the inflation cumulated in USA since the beginning of the 20th Century?

I'm asking because I would like to compare the updated retail price from old adds I have with the current prices. I know it doesn't make much sense, but I'm curious about it. The one below is from 1904.

Douglas.

[DavidJayUden]

Try this table, right column, for average annual rates. There is a calculator option that may help over time too. Or do a google search trying different search words:

http://www.usinflationcalculator.com...flation-rates/

dju

[kurusu]

I really don't care. After all it's only money.

For Douglas:

Mais vale um gosto do que dinheiro no bolso.

(always broke) Kurusu

[4 Scale]

Using an online inflation calculator, it shows that at item worth $30 in 1900 would be worth $800 today. I don't know if it is accurate but this calculation "feels" reasonable. If you Google "inflation since 1900" you get lots ways to answer the question.

This suggests to me that Lugers appreciate over long periods at some rate above inflation. This makes sense, as Luger inventory is finite and must be decreasing due to oxidation, breakage etc. while overall wealth and the quantity of people with disposable income is increasing, as are education levels. I am assuming that wealth, disposable income and education are factors tending to create demand for this type of collectible - pure supposition, but reasonable IMO.

My personal guess is that Lugers appreciate in excess of inflation but at a lower rate than other investment benchmarks like T. bills. It would be fascinating to hear long-time collector comments on the subject. I would also guess that there are some smart dealers in collectible items (art, various types of antiques and so forth) out there who have a fact-based view on the matter, as would curators of museums with significant collections of historical firearms.

[Sergio Natali]

Originally Posted by 4 Scale

Using an online inflation calculator, it shows that at item worth $30 in 1900 would be worth $800 today. I don't know if it is accurate but this calculation "feels" reasonable. If you Google "inflation since 1900" you get lots ways to answer the question.

This suggests to me that Lugers appreciate over long periods at some rate above inflation. This makes sense, as Luger inventory is finite and must be decreasing due to oxidation, breakage etc. while overall wealth and the quantity of people with disposable income is increasing, as are education levels. I am assuming that wealth, disposable income and education are factors tending to create demand for this type of collectible - pure supposition, but reasonable IMO.

My personal guess is that Lugers appreciate in excess of inflation but at a lower rate than other investment benchmarks like T. bills. It would be fascinating to hear long-time collector comments on the subject. I would also guess that there are some smart dealers in collectible items (art, various types of antiques and so forth) out there who have a fact-based view on the matter, as would curators of museums with significant collections of historical firearms.

Pretty well made and absolutely interesting analysis.

[hayhugh]

I bought a S&W K22 back in 1956 for 67.xx. put maybe 2 boxes of LR through it that year and have now put it up for sale with LGD for $1000.00 (GD's estimate) with box and original brochure. All guns appreciate if kept in good shape. Bought a Luger same year for $30.00 +5.00 for extra select. Had Luger reblued to make it look like new gun in 1958. Gave Luger to Nephew and he sold it a couple of years ago. Found out last year that it was all matching even magazine from nephew after he sold it for $800.00 to local luger collector. I think gun should have brought more then 1000.00 being all matching even with re-bluing. easy come - easy go!

[4 Scale]

Hayhugh that type of data is highly useful to the question.

This calculator
http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc....956&year2=2016
should be a relatively good benchmark. It computes the value of item worth $35 in 1956 as over $300 today, suggesting that Lugers appreciate at 3-4 times the inflation rate given your $1,000 value estimate for the pistol which seems fair.

This particular calculator only goes back to 1913, but plugging the $30 value for the 1900 Luger from post #3 in shows a value today of over $700; if one assumes an average condition Model 1900 Parabellum to be worth $2,100 or so today, there is that roughly 3x inflation rate again.

If other collectors would like to mention date of purchase and price, and a later date and FMV, I will make an effort to return to the thread and compute appreciation using the Govt. CPI calculator at the link above and summarize findings. The most useful examples would be pistols owned through several business cycles, roughly at least ten years and preferably longer.

[cirelaw]

Another reason to hold on is lugers aren't subject to immediate impulse selling. A hundred dollar bill has a shelve life of ten minutes! I have had my lugers for over ten years. Only one of my wives, Debby made it twelve years!!

[4 Scale]

Here are several categories of collectibles that strike me as having similarities to Lugers, and ten-year appreciation figures from 2004-13:

http://247wallst.com/special-report/...-collectibles/

Classic cars 430%
Stamps 255%
Coins 225%
Jewelry 146%
Watches 83%

Hardly conclusive, but IMO tends to suggest that Lugers may appreciate at several times the rate of inflation which I believe has been below 2% annually during this period.

[mrerick]

It's probably difficult to estimate the relationship between inflation and Lugers in general because of the number of variations, condition levels and specific interests of the marketplace.

Beyond just owning one Luger (which, of course, every gun owner should aspire to), each transaction is unique based upon demand, the knowledge of the buyer, supply of the specific firearm and market communications.

Rarity (in Lugers, based upon original supply, condition and variation) only makes a market if there is a consumer demand for the commodity.

I think that the Simson Luger is a good example of this. There were very few made compared to other manufacturers, few survived WW-II; they are distinctive variations (with their own toggle styles) and they are quite rare. They also tend to sell for a fraction of the price regularly given for the more prolific Krieghoff Lugers. What's the difference? Probably the association of Krieghoff with the Luftwaffe generating more interest and demand.

Obviously, the price of Simson and Krieghoff Lugers doesn't track with inflation.

One thing is clear. The preference for Lugers being as close to factory state as possible helps manage and develop the market, and helps accelerate the value of those few that survive that way.

So... I expect that the "shooter" Luger's value probably tracks with inflation. Possibly a little less since the market for firearms is limited by bureaucracy, restraint of international trade and market segmentation (what a dealer sells for, versus what a collector sells for, versus what a collector buys for, versus what a dealer buys for - in descending order of prices).

A collectible gun is likely to do a bit better than inflation, with an accelerated valuation based upon condition, rarity and market demand for that specific variation. Ultimately, the art of the "deal" is one buyer and one seller coming to agreement.

[cirelaw]

One more reason, Divorce, The husband normally gets the guns!!

[Eugen]

This is a most interesting dialog on the relative value of Lugers and related accessories.

A point I would like to make is that comparing the value of a Luger to the value of a dollar (in this case) is somewhat meaningless. The reason, you ask? Well, what we are essentially discussing is the devaluation of the dollar over time in relation to everything.

The real question I believe is the relative valuation of Lugers over time as compared to other items/assets/investments, etc. Adjusting for inflation is just to provide a relative constant over time to determine the actual appreciated value of Lugers to the US Dollar (that is consistently losing value).

I like 4 Scale's comparison of Lugers to other collectibles. That is interesting and worthy of further discussion.

We all know that the volume or supply of Lugers is fixed or declining. Declining, as previously mentioned above, due to fire, loss, or other unrepairable damage. What we don't know and can only try to measure is the effective demand, as measured by dollars adjusted over time, or other alternative uses or expenditures of our dollars.

[DonVoigt]

Even the measurement of "inflation" has not kept up with what most of us experience as inflation.

One measurement I like is when the cost/price of a luger is stated as weeks wages at average or in terms how many eggs or automobiles, etc. I can at least relate to I have to work a month or a year to buy a luger!

Some folks only have to work a few hours to "earn" a luger.

[cirelaw]

I would rather hold a luger in my hand than a share of stock!!!

[mrerick]

Yes... the stock certificates don't do much for me either...

Now, if you're talking an account full of them, we might be on to something more useful... Especially the dividends which can be turned into Lugers at will!

Kidding aside, I've recently done very well with Ruger stock. The company runs on the European manufacturing model, and has no debt. They recently built a completely new factory here in North Carolina and equipped it using accumulated cash. Even with that they pay dividends consistent with current year profits.

I attended their stock holder meeting recently, and the management is very level headed. They had analysis making it clear that political issues have been driving the marketplace intermittently for many years, making our current administration the best salesman in US history.

The interest in Lugers must track with the overall sales of firearms, which also represent new buyers being embraced by many aspects of our community. Collecting is one of them, and I believe it's been contributing to demand.

[DavidJayUden]

I sometimes worry about ebbing demand for Lugers, as the future generations grow up with less feedback on their history. My curiosity and interest was peaked by Tuesday evenings watching Combat on television, and todays lineup of sit-coms and reality shows never approach the subject of WW1 or WW2.
Plus with WW2 vets reaching the end of their life-spans, so goes another market.
Sort of like Model T's. In my youth a nice T was coveted, but as that crowd of enthusiasts passed, the market became flooded, interest dropped, and so did values.
The same goes for British motorcycles, a market that I was involved in for some years. While prices are still good, a lot of sales are to Europe, as Americans seem to want to push a button and not clean up oil.
I'm just not sure that having a large part of your net worth in Lugers is a good idea.
dju

[4 Scale]

What makes the subject of Luger appreciation especially interesting to me is the question of does a "premium" exist for Lugers vs. other collectibles. I wonder this because my biggest surprises as a new Luger owner are the reaction at the range, and the elaborate efforts to fake rare variations.

I think at least at the moment, the data in this thread suggests that a premium exists. David asks a key question -will interest decrease over time. IMO what makes Lugers fascinating are the history and unique aesthetics, and my guess is those go away slowly or never.

[cirelaw]

Lugers are a limited number while more money and stock certificates can be printed daily!