A Black Widow With a Big Bite

tharpo · 01-08-2018, 07:41 PM

Just sold $6,250. The interesting thing about it is that my data shows not so long ago this gun had wood grips!
https://www.gunbroker.com/item/731874259

George Anderson · 01-08-2018, 08:46 PM

Look at the winning bidder's feed back and the seller's name. It is an obvious shill bidder situation.

DonVoigt · 01-08-2018, 08:55 PM

By George, I think you've got it !

Confuses-us says,"Man who buy black widow deserves black plastic grips in place of nice wood".

There were some others at the $3k level, which is still nutz , JMHO.

tharpo · 01-08-2018, 10:21 PM

George,
What would be the point for the winning bidder to shill bid it that high and win the auction? The seller would still to pay the commission to Gunbroker.

Tom

sheepherder · 01-08-2018, 11:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by George Anderson

Look at the winning bidder's feed back and the seller's name. It is an obvious shill bidder situation.

George, I'm looking at the winning bidders feedback page and the sellers username, and I don't see the connection. Can you explain???

Disregard! I see gunsrc down more than ten times just on the first page!

CJS57 · 01-09-2018, 06:59 AM

Sorry but I fail to see how the fact that the winning bidder bid and won multiple items from Gunsrc is proof of shill bidding? Please explain. I have no connection to the bidder or seller.

4 Scale · 01-09-2018, 08:30 AM

Since the shill must place bids, sometimes the shill will win, it's sort of an occupational hazard.

It doesn't take many successful big scores to cover the transaction fees incurred when the shill "wins". The shill's odds are at least 50/50 on every auction, maybe better if he's good. Multiple wins by the same bidder mean the team is active - what you are not seeing is all the times the shill "lost" (after bidding the item up), which should be equal to or exceed his number of wins given the 50/50 or better odds.

Or, maybe this one bidder just really likes this one seller. That's the beauty of the shill con, it's hard to prove. However when experts on market value (such as members of this forum) are noting items selling way in excess of market, and the seller/bidder appear to have history, it is reasonable to assume the shill con.

While this particular con seems obvious, some shills can be very difficult to spot. The only sure defense against shills to it know the market of what you're bidding on, and don't bid above that value.

Robert in NC · 01-09-2018, 12:06 PM

Too many Upper Case letters, exclamation points, and the classic "RARE!" statement in the description for me to consider bidding on it. I'm new to Lugers, but not to buying guns on gunbroker. Those are some of my 'disqualifying' items in the description.

4 Scale · 01-09-2018, 12:38 PM

I agree that high condition/expensive items or overblown descriptions demand extra caution. IMO shill risk is greater when the item cost is greater, so pursuing lower condition or flawed pistols decreases the risk from shills.

The paradox is while GB seems to have shills, no shortage of overpriced/misrepresented pistols etc. the greater universe of Luger sellers sadly contains similar significant risk. Also my own experience and the experience of others shared on the forum indicates market-priced pistols can be found on auction sites, including GB. As well as the occasional bargain. Also, known reputable sellers like Legacy have significant GB offerings.

If a seller or particular auction is known to be unusually bad, I agree avoid it, but I would not put GB in that category.

CJS57 · 01-09-2018, 01:12 PM

So in this case the shill wins the $6,000 Luger. Now what does the seller do? Can't really relist it. And the shill is not going to pay for it. I still don't see the proof of shill bidding.
I have sold several guns on GB that went for fully double the real normal value. No shill. 2 buyers got into a bidding war and in the end the gun was sold and paid for at the huge stupid price. How do you explain that?

George Anderson · 01-09-2018, 02:42 PM

The seller simply continues to offer the pistol in his shop in Kentucky.

4 Scale · 01-09-2018, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJS57

So in this case the shill wins the $6,000 Luger. Now what does the seller do? Can't really relist it. And the shill is not going to pay for it.

Covered in post #7 and by George's post. Absolutely it can be re-listed after time or on another site, at retail, different pictures or description etc.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJS57

still don't see the proof of shill bidding.

I don't see anyone saying there is 'proof'. The comments are on the evidence. In post #7 it it's noted that that it could be legitimate.

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJS57

have sold several guns on GB that went for fully double the real normal value. No shill. 2 buyers got into a bidding war and in the end the gun was sold and paid for at the huge stupid price. How do you explain that?

Anyone who participates in auctions eventually sells things for more than than market, sometimes substantially more. Bid wars are a known aspect. Shills try to start and stoke those. I see lots of stuff go above market on GB, where I don't think shills are involved. I also regularly see bargains. That some or even most transactions are legitimate has nothing to do with shill bidding.

I don't want to bash GB or even this seller. But, I think auctions represent both risk and opportunity. Understanding seller ruses is helpful.

tharpo · 01-09-2018, 05:21 PM

The second place bidder had no rating and had not won a GB auction. That's a red flag for me when it comes to the possibly of shill bidding.

DonVoigt · 01-09-2018, 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CJS57

So in this case the shill wins the $6,000 Luger. Now what does the seller do? Can't really relist it. And the shill is not going to pay for it. I still don't see the proof of shill bidding.
I have sold several guns on GB that went for fully double the real normal value. No shill. 2 buyers got into a bidding war and in the end the gun was sold and paid for at the huge stupid price. How do you explain that?

Explain that? Sometimes it happens, if you are the seller you got lucky.

On the OP, while one can't "prove" anything, if it looks like a duck... and it stinks- it might be. JMHO.

Sure he can re-list the gun, just say it was returned or the deal fell through, or say nothing at all. No rule against selling a gun twice!

lugercollector · 01-16-2018, 07:23 PM

" If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck".....George IMO is right on.....

01-08-2018, 07:41 PM	#1
tharpo Lifer Lifetime Forum Patron Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: West Coast, USA Posts: 541 Thanks: 116 Thanked 382 Times in 157 Posts	A Black Widow With a Big Bite Just sold $6,250. The interesting thing about it is that my data shows not so long ago this gun had wood grips! https://www.gunbroker.com/item/731874259

01-08-2018, 08:55 PM	#3
DonVoigt User Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: near Charlotte NC Posts: 4,681 Thanks: 1,441 Thanked 4,350 Times in 2,040 Posts	By George, I think you've got it ! Confuses-us says,"Man who buy black widow deserves black plastic grips in place of nice wood". There were some others at the $3k level, which is still nutz , JMHO. __________________ 03man(Don Voigt); Luger student and collector. Looking for DWM side plate: 69 ; Dreyse 1907 pistol K.S. Gendarmerie

01-08-2018, 08:46 PM	#2
George Anderson Lifer Lifetime Forum Patron Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: VA Posts: 3,592 Thanks: 1,773 Thanked 2,528 Times in 787 Posts	Look at the winning bidder's feed back and the seller's name. It is an obvious shill bidder situation.

01-08-2018, 10:21 PM	#4
tharpo Lifer Lifetime Forum Patron Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: West Coast, USA Posts: 541 Thanks: 116 Thanked 382 Times in 157 Posts	George, What would be the point for the winning bidder to shill bid it that high and win the auction? The seller would still to pay the commission to Gunbroker. Tom

01-09-2018, 06:59 AM	#6
CJS57 User Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 224 Thanks: 0 Thanked 81 Times in 41 Posts	Sorry but I fail to see how the fact that the winning bidder bid and won multiple items from Gunsrc is proof of shill bidding? Please explain. I have no connection to the bidder or seller.

01-09-2018, 08:30 AM	#7
4 Scale User Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 544 Thanks: 194 Thanked 489 Times in 251 Posts	Since the shill must place bids, sometimes the shill will win, it's sort of an occupational hazard. It doesn't take many successful big scores to cover the transaction fees incurred when the shill "wins". The shill's odds are at least 50/50 on every auction, maybe better if he's good. Multiple wins by the same bidder mean the team is active - what you are not seeing is all the times the shill "lost" (after bidding the item up), which should be equal to or exceed his number of wins given the 50/50 or better odds. Or, maybe this one bidder just really likes this one seller. That's the beauty of the shill con, it's hard to prove. However when experts on market value (such as members of this forum) are noting items selling way in excess of market, and the seller/bidder appear to have history, it is reasonable to assume the shill con. While this particular con seems obvious, some shills can be very difficult to spot. The only sure defense against shills to it know the market of what you're bidding on, and don't bid above that value. Last edited by 4 Scale; 01-09-2018 at 09:22 AM.

01-09-2018, 12:06 PM	#8
Robert in NC User Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: North Carolina Posts: 32 Thanks: 32 Thanked 22 Times in 11 Posts	Too many Upper Case letters, exclamation points, and the classic "RARE!" statement in the description for me to consider bidding on it. I'm new to Lugers, but not to buying guns on gunbroker. Those are some of my 'disqualifying' items in the description.

01-09-2018, 12:38 PM	#9
4 Scale User Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 544 Thanks: 194 Thanked 489 Times in 251 Posts	I agree that high condition/expensive items or overblown descriptions demand extra caution. IMO shill risk is greater when the item cost is greater, so pursuing lower condition or flawed pistols decreases the risk from shills. The paradox is while GB seems to have shills, no shortage of overpriced/misrepresented pistols etc. the greater universe of Luger sellers sadly contains similar significant risk. Also my own experience and the experience of others shared on the forum indicates market-priced pistols can be found on auction sites, including GB. As well as the occasional bargain. Also, known reputable sellers like Legacy have significant GB offerings. If a seller or particular auction is known to be unusually bad, I agree avoid it, but I would not put GB in that category.

01-09-2018, 01:12 PM	#10
CJS57 User Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 224 Thanks: 0 Thanked 81 Times in 41 Posts	So in this case the shill wins the $6,000 Luger. Now what does the seller do? Can't really relist it. And the shill is not going to pay for it. I still don't see the proof of shill bidding. I have sold several guns on GB that went for fully double the real normal value. No shill. 2 buyers got into a bidding war and in the end the gun was sold and paid for at the huge stupid price. How do you explain that?

01-09-2018, 02:42 PM	#11
George Anderson Lifer Lifetime Forum Patron Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: VA Posts: 3,592 Thanks: 1,773 Thanked 2,528 Times in 787 Posts	The seller simply continues to offer the pistol in his shop in Kentucky.

01-09-2018, 05:21 PM	#13
tharpo Lifer Lifetime Forum Patron Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: West Coast, USA Posts: 541 Thanks: 116 Thanked 382 Times in 157 Posts	The second place bidder had no rating and had not won a GB auction. That's a red flag for me when it comes to the possibly of shill bidding.

01-16-2018, 07:23 PM	#15
lugercollector Patron LugerForum Patron Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: canada Posts: 322 Thanks: 0 Thanked 25 Times in 15 Posts	" If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck".....George IMO is right on.....