Luger Price Survey (long)

[Dwight Gruber]

Its all Orv Reichert's fault.

I carry a copy of Aaron Davis's Handbook around with me, it is a very handy quick pocket reference. The last gun show where I ran into Orv, he offered to send me Bob Simpson's price list, so I could supplement Davis's admittedly inaccurate values.

As I looked at both lists, I began to wonder how I could meaningfully reconcile them. After all, one is a retail price list, the other is a list of values.

I had to ask the question, what am I looking for? It is quite apparent that there is a great deal of variation in peoples' opinions of a Luger's value. The question I pondered is: really, irrespective of value, how much can I actually expect to -pay- for this Luger or that? Am I paying too much? Am I getting a super deal? If someone asks me what their Luger is "worth", what can I tell them?

I determined to make a survey of all the retail--asking--prices I could actually find, over as many models and variations as were being offered. What I have ended up with is a snapshot of how much it might have cost to buy a Luger over the 4th of July weekend.

METHODOLOGY

Prices were as posted by 11 online Luger sales presences, the Luger Forum classifieds, the last 5 months of gun shows in the Portland-Vancouver-Longview area. One dealer provided almost half of the total prices. It should be noted that Ralph Shattuck is not represented in this survey; this is only because I do not happen to be a subscriber to his list, and thus do not have access to his current prices or stock. Nothing should be read into this. Anyone with his list can make the comparison, I suppose that I should get serious and purchhase his list--it might or might not be worthwhile to recompile the statistics therefrom. Where I could, I included some actual purchase prices for comparison. These are from my own personal knowledge (and purchases!); I also combed through the last six months worth of Forum discussion postings to glean additional asking prices and purchase prices. Auction sites are not included.

Condition proved to be a knottier problem. Its vey subjective, no two people assay a Luger the same way, and the same person might judge the same Luger differently on different days. Inorder to have a consistent comparison, I devised an arbitrary system, and tried my best to assign other peoples' descriptions of condition into it. If there were photographs, I carefully analyzed them to help 'fine tune' the assignment. For the purpose of this survey, the categories are: Best = mint to 98%; Excellent = 98-90%; Very Good = 90-85%; Good = 85-70%; Fair = 70-60%; Poor = worse than 60%; Reblue = refinished, reblued, or restored matching Lugers. Mismatch covers all Lugers whose numbers do not match, regardless of surface condition--most are 4" barrel in 9mm, exceptions are not noted. East German and Russian rework/dip Lugers are included in their original categories as reblue if they are straight and matching, otherwise they are simply considered mismatch. If a Luger was on the cusp of a category, bore, grip, and straw condition were considered tie-breakers to make a category assignment. Any description which admitted surface pitting knocked a gun down a grade, as did any serious, willful surface marring. It should be obvious that this system piles subjectivity upon subjectivity.

Luger prices are listed in a way to give a range of cost, a most expensive--average price--least expensive sequence. Thus, Grade, number of samples, most expensive, average, least expensive e.g Exc 7: 4,995--2,532--1,500. Occasionally a gun would have a price radically different from the general price range of the model. These prices are listed in the sequence, but not included in calculation of the average. These are usually an extraordinarily high price, although in a couple of cases they are exceptionally low. Some Lugers are offered including a holster. The prices for these rig guns usually fell within the range of prices for any given model, and are simply included in the average calculation without further note. The exception to this is the splitting out of Artillery Lugers offered with rigs.

Not all categories or years of Lugers are included in the statistics. Sometimes an entire range of production had an essentially similar price structure: therefore Simsons and Artilleries are listed as single categories without breaking out year of manufacture, and Police models are listed as a group without breaking down into various models. Lugers offered with unit markings are not broken out in all cases.

Specialty Lugers, categories with very few entries, and Lugers with lots of different recognized sub-groups are not listed in this posting, because it would make an excessively complex presentation. These categories include all Navys, Krieghoffs, K dates, and Mauser Banners. I have these statistics, I may or may not post them later--after all this effort I am not entirely convinced that this list is either worthwhile or particularly useful.

CONCLUSIONS

Please note that this statisitcal presentation has nothing to do with Luger values, only cost. Regardless of what anyone might think a paricular gun is worth, what is represented here is a range of what one might expect to pay. It is noteworthy that the recorded purchases are, mostly, lower than the price range; it would be interesting to see where auction sales fall relative to this list.

Since the original thought was to augment the Davis Handbook prices, I did a quick comparison. Davis's values fall pretty much within the ranges of costs represented here (as well as the specialties etc. which I haven't listed); his valuations of DWM Commercials, Erfurts, Artilleries, Simsons, 1929 Berns, and byf are still a bit on the high side. Ralph Shattuck's valuatins in the back of "Luger Tips" are a bit lower than these prices, and Fjestad's current Blue Book figures are strikingly lower.

If the costs represented here are any indication, buying a Luger is a crap shoot. The fact that there is so much price variation and crossover between condition can only mean that there is no real consensus on the connection between price and condition of Lugers, and renders the usefulness of this analysis questionable at best. The fact that I have seen many of these guns for sale at these prices for a long time indicates that either the asking prices are too high, or there is not very much trade in Lugers; I don't have the experience to come to a conclusion in this regard.

Regardless of its value, I must report that this has been an incredibly educational exercise--I have learned as much about Lugers over the long weekend as I have since I started seriously paying attention again six months ago. For that it has immense value, at least to me.

So, without further ado, the statistics, I hope the formatting works out decently on the forum.

--Dwight

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1900 AE

Best 1: 3950; Exc 7: 4,995--2,532--1,500; VG 2: 2,495--1,995; reblue 4: 1,750--1,361--1,000

--Purchased reblue 1: 700

Test Eagle

Exc 3: 4,500--4,250--4,000

1900 Commercial

Best 1: 3500; Exc 2: 4,995--3,500; VG 1: 2,500; Poor, 1: 995; reblue 3: 2,995--1,375--1,200

1900 Swiss

Best 6: 12,500--5,849--3,900; Exc 10: 7,500--4,121--2,950; VG 1: 1,200; reblue 1: 2,750

1906 AE

Best 2: 2,650--2,495; Exc 14: 2,995--2,244--1,495; VG 8: 1,875--1,340--995; Good 3: 995--995--925; fair 3: 1,200--1,195--795; Poor 4: 895--797--699

1906 Commercial

Exc 2: 2,495--2,450; Poor 1: 1,495; reblue 3: 1,695--1,650--995

1906 Portuguese

Exc 3: 2,200--1,650--1,500; VG 3: 1,800--1,595--1,195

1906 Dutch

Exc 5: 2,250--1,782--1,200; VG 1: 1,400; Fair 4: 1,650--1,197--795; Poor 2: 1,295--895; reblue 1: 995

1906 Swiss

Best 2: 2,745--2,745; Exc 10: 3,700--2,834--2,250; VG 1: 3,750

1906 Bern

Best 2: 2,550--2,450; Exc 5: 2,650--2,419--1,995

1908 Commercial

Exc 8: 2,750--1,653--1,250; reblue 1: 895

1914 Commercial

Exc 1: 1,295; VG 1: 895

1920 Commercial

Best 4: 995--995--995; Exc 24: 1,295--924--699; Fair 1: 695; reblue 1: 655

--Purchased reblue 1: 375

1923 Commercial

Exc 6: 1,495--1,431--800

Erfurt--all years

Exc 6: 1,495--1,431--800; VG 9: 1,395--1,005--750; Poor 1: 695; reblue 1: 575

--Purchased Fair 1: 300; reblue 1: 575

1908 Military

Good 2: 1,254--995; Fair 1: 795; reblue 1: 1,195

1910 Military

Exc 1: 2,150

1911 Military

Exc 1: 1,595

1913 Military

VG 1: 1,500; Good 1: 1,095

1914 Military

Exc 2: 1,495--1,295

1915 Military

Exc 3: 1,295--1,095--995; reblue 1: 725

--Purchased Poor 1: 350

1916 Military

Exc 6: 1,395--1,145--795; VG 3: 895--895--795

1917 Military

Exc 4: 1,395--1,028--895; VG 2: 1,095--895; Good 1: 695; Fair 1: 700; reblue 1: 850

1918 Military

Exc 10: 1,495--1,092--795; VG 4: 1,000--781--700; reblue 1: 475

--Purchased Good 1: 500; reblue 1: 800

Erfurt Artillery

VG 1: 1,795

--Purchased Exc 1: 1,350

DWM Artillery, all years

Best 2: 2,800--1,645; Exc 8: 2,200--1,813--1,200; Fair 1: 800; reblue 1: 895

--Purchased Good 1: 1,200

DWM Artillery w/Rig

Best 1: 6,950 (stock rig, drum); Exc 1: 2,995 (holster); VG 1: 3,750 (matching stock rig); reblue : 5,500 (stock rig)

Police, all

Exc 14: 1850--1215--895; VG 7: 895--726--500 Good 4: 975--836--600; Fair 2: 695--645; reblue 1: 900

Simson

Exc 1: 2,500; VG 2: 1,650--1,395; Good 2: 1,795--1,995; Fair 1: 1,100; reblue 2: 1,200--700

1929 Bern

Best 4: 3,350--2,912--2,500; Exc 11: 2,795--2,258--1,250

1936 S/42

Best 1: 1,300; Exc 7: 1,995--1,221--600; VG 1: 895; Fair 1: 750; reblue 1: 450

--Purchased VG 1: 550; Good 1: 700; Fair 1: 750

1937 S/42

Exc 12: 2,475--1,378--895; VG 1: 895; Fair 1: 750; reblue 1: 800

1938 S/42

Exc 2: 1,295--1,195; VG 1: 1,195; Fair 1: 650

1939 S/42

Exc 1: 1,100; reblue 1: 800

G S/42

Best 1: 2.150; Exc 4: 2,150--1,288--975; Fair 1: 425

1939 42

Exc 3: 1,495--1,750--1,850; VG 1: 375; Poor 1: 995; reblue 4: 900--823--700

1940 42

Best 1: 995; Exc 3: 1,175--1,095--995; VG 1:850; Good 1: 795; reblue 3: 800--800--800

--Purchase Fair 1:300

41 42

Exc 1: 1,995; reblue 1: 995

byf 41

Exc 1: 1,700; VG 2: 895--895; Good 2: 895--450; Fair 1: 395; Poor 1: 395; reblue 2: 900--650

byf 41 KU

Exc 2: 1,850--2,200; reblue 1: 1,350

byf 41 Black Widow

Exc 3: 1,495--1,295--1,195; VG 1: 1,195;

--Purchase Best 1: 1,000; Exc 1: 900; reblue 1: 575

byf 42

Best 1: 1,495; Exc 4: 2,995--1,180--1.095; reblue 3: 900--900--800

byf 42 Portuguese

Exc 2: 1,295--1.795; Good 1: 695

byf 42 Black Widow

Best 1,795; Exc 4: 2,995--1,328--1,095; VG 1: 1.300

Mismatch Lugers

40: 1,300--686--400

--Purchased 2: 400--325

[Frank]

Dwight, thanks for all the work!! I will try to digest your data and let you know if I can add anything. For sure the quality rating is subjective, but we have to start somewhere. <img src="graemlins/beerchug.gif" border="0" alt="[cheers]" />

[Edward Tinker]

My mind, you have ruined my mind!

Actually very good, I printed this out and will take a look at it. I have computer eyes, the screen never looks the same to me as printed matter and I mess with PC's all day, [img]wink.gif[/img]