Tax time affecting gun broker prices?

[Brien]

Hi folks,

Is it just me or are the opening bid, reserve and buy it now prices on Gunbroker a little on the semi ridiculous side. Is it because of tax time perchance? They weren't that high just a month ago. Has the supply if lugers suddenly dried up?

P-38s are also creeping into the higher than general price ranges. Is it a cycle or have I missed the boat on affordable pieces and am watching it sail away.

From my semi-untrained eye most (if not all) don't seem to be outstanding collector pieces
They aren't krieghoffs, k dates or other much scarcer versions.

Also, am I wrong in being a little disgusted at the "Black Widow" marketing moniker and the (to me) grossly inflated prices for them? Fred Datig days in hisLugers at Random there were many thousands produced. (Or am I mistaken?)



I know, I'm probably just whining....

What say ye?

[Edward Tinker]

no such model as a 'widow''

It seems that prices go up and down - I do find that some times of the year that ebay or gunbroker are better than others...

[4 Scale]

I spend way too much time looking for deals on Gunbroker compared to what I actually bid on. Lugers come and go in waves. It is thin right now. Patience is the single biggest asset a Luger collector can have IMO; "be patient". When a wave hits, bargains can be had.

[Brien]

Ed,

Quite right about the "widow" I've read about this marketing ploy. I just get disgusted by people wanting over $3,000 for them and they are not that special. They probably won't get it, but it artificially inflates an already expensive hobby.

I just wanted to know if you luger veterans see this as a normal market ebb and flow. I am just amazed at the quick fluctuation that is even affecting p-38s, many if which are late war with nowhere near the manufacturing precision of even the last lugers produced. I am thankful for you and all the other members that impart information critical in safeguarding against expensive mistakes. I just hope that the market returns to a level that is financially manageable fairly quickly.

[alvin]

"Black Widow" in very nice shape can sell higher than $3k. When talking cheap or expensive, that's an item's coming cost, but depends on how much it can sell. If an item can sell $3k, and you get one at $1.5k, that's cheap.

But this type of thing's value heavily depends on condition. Especially on relatively common variation. Beware of this scenario: say, you got a Black Widow at $1.5k, but it's not that nice so it's a $1k item,,, then $1.5k is not cheap anymore.

Be able to find cheap guns cheap is not an achievement, be able to find expensive guns cheap is. Does not happen very often. Need time and lots of long time searching effort and luck. Nothing really comes free. Your effort also worth money.

[mrerick]

"Irrational exuberance"?

Every auction is it's own individual market. Completely depends on who is in the audience and what they really want. The audience depends upon the marketing of the auctioneer.

Just recently at smaller regional auctions a friend was able to buy genuinely rare and high condition Lugers for about 1/3 what they sell for between collectors. He invests quite a bit of time on this and knows the marketplace well, so he has a good idea when something needs to be bid on.

[alvin]

Another wave of C&R is listed in Amoskeag. Their items are usually not cheap, not for resale profit purpose, but they offer good assessment and description service. At the beginning, you don't want to jump into a wild environment because there are many traps. Amoskeag helps. They carry many Lugers. If one item meet your need, bid on it. If it goes out of reach, let it go and wait next session. After viewing a few thousand of them, still cannot find an appropriate one? then,,, not sure what to do. No, that's impossible. This is just one supplier, there are many many suppliers.

http://www.amoskeagauction.com/113/auction113.php

[DonVoigt]

Yes, the market(for lugers and guns in general) ebbs and flows.
Within a venue, monthly, yearly, and in longer boom/bust cycles too.

Generally tax time is good to sell, folks have tax refunds(or not).
Christmas/New Year and mid-summer vacation time are generally good times to buy; when folks spend their money and "time" on other things.

Basically- don't worry about it! As 4 Scale said, just be "patient".