The gun market is stuck

[Sergio Natali]

After all these years, of collecting firearms (and making mistakes) I've come to the conclusion that truly collectible items must be: a) 100% original b) in fairly good condition c) rare.

A firearm that doesn't fall at the same time into those three categories is not a collectible.
For so many years I collected old 1911s, then German K98Ks looking for the unicorn (truly all matching K98K), I've collected vintage Lugers until not long ago, and more recently I re-started collecting M1911s and M1911A1s.

I've always liked to be able to sell something to partially finance the acquisition of something better, but in the last two years I've not even managed to sell one single gun. The market here in Italy is virtually stuck and the only way to "sell" a firearm is to give it half price to a gun shop, in the past I did it a couple of times, but now I refuse to trade or sell any more at such a big loss, and now I'm seriously considering to sell the rest of my collectibles to a younger friend that has got money to throw away and more confidence in the future than me.

[Vlim]

You see it in all collector markets in the EU.

Money is tied up in collections and the means to purchase are not there.

Guns, classic cars, no movement. Regulation scare is not helping either and the main goal of the EU to bleed its citizens dry works very well.

[DonVoigt]

Pretty much the same here too, either "rare" or cheap- or black plastic is what sells.

Military used knives/bayonets are even worse. JMHO

[George Anderson]

Originally Posted by Vlim

Regulation scare is not helping either and the main goal of the EU to bleed its citizens dry works very well.

Somebodies got to feed, clothe and house all your new immigrants.

[drbuster]

EU has no monopoly here, George. Witness deeply divided US of A!

[Sergio Natali]

Don I think you're right.

Talking about the guns market with an old friend who owns a small but well stocked gun shop, he told me that people get inside, start asking about prices, then get out.

A few days before Christmas I went to see another gun dealer that I've known for years, and that has got an old gun shop in the town centre, he showed me all the C96s, the Swiss Lugers and the SIG P210s that nobody seems to want...

Apparently the main guns that are being sold are GLOCKs and other Tupperware pistols, in particular second hand ones...

Quite sad.

[DavidJayUden]

I'd say that not only is the collector market stuck, but it is in decline. While there continues to be interest in Lugers, let's face it, it isn't what it used to be. We're dying off and the next gen. is just less enamored with these older guns.
dju

[MW2152]

I think that the market is soft for many collectible things, with the higher the cost the harder the sell. People buy new made guns because... they can. The costs are not necessarily prohibitive. It’s the old story of people having an easier time spending $500 three times than $1500 one time. Everything which you mentioned, Luger.para, is an expansive thing to collect. When “shooter” Lugers, 1911’s, and K98s all start at $750 plus, it will always likely be a harder and slower sale to make. $400 Glocks are a lot easier! Both to buy and sell. A decent grade 1911 or Luger is very easy to drop at least $1400 to $1500 on. And with that price range fakes are a real risk. That’s a lot of $$& and risks to young or newer collectors. You can easily buy a new Glock, not get defrauded, and the afford to shoot it and fix it, for obviously way less.

So that all obviously plays a role. Just my opinions.

[wlyon]

The gun market is rather like the stock market. We have highs and lows. Personally I like to buy high and sell low so I have something to complain about. Bill

[gunbugs]

I've bought a lot of guns over the years. I generally have not bought them because I thought I was going to "make money" on them. I buy nice stuff that I like. I rarely have sold anything. If, perchance, when I go to liquidate in a decade or two, that I happen to sell for more than I paid, that will just be icing on the cake. My "profit" is having the joy of owning nice guns, and being able to gain some tidbits of knowledge along the way.

[Edward Tinker]

I have to admit that over the years I have bought and sold a lot of items, and my main discovery is that if its been a few years, I can always make some money. Perhaps not a profit and I might lose money, but I bring some in.
If you ever watch antique roadshow re-runs, they'll show the value they guessed in 1998 and todays value. What is amazing is how often things have gone down from that time. That said, as a collecting field (whatever, clocks, watches, guns, paintings) there was a HUGE hit and prices went stagnant in the last 10 years. Rare stuff and minty stuff has always held value, but average items have had really odd valuations.

I don't belong to the 'all the old collectors are dying off and we're screwed cuz the new folks buy glocks' mindset, as I simply think new collectors come along who are interested in what we like. As an example, the doom and gloom over Colt Single Actions happened when I was a kid, and the end of collecting them hasn't happened. But a close friend has antique clocks and another other collectibles and its harder to sell than it used to be. Folks blame the internet, and its true, lots of items out there, and easier to find and compare.

BUT, I have noticed its a pain to sell a collection quick if you want to.

Although 'pretty' guns still sell to the idiots. Pretty meaning fakes, reblued, made nice, two matching magazines. I like nice guns, but give me a slightly aged gun any day over one that is obviously too new!

No simple answers in collecting.

[Diver6106]

I think the market has bubbled and poped in WW I/II guns. They're just too expensive over $1000, compared to the rest of guns available. I am a low end collector of 'shooters', with NO cash flow limits or problems. When I started in the 1990's, I was looking for $400 P-38s and $500 Lugers. I bought several at these prices or a little more. Also bought the parts to build mismatched pistols - a LOT of fun with slow collection of parts. But over a $1000, no matter how good it is, I just wouldn't buy it - too many other things I'd rather buy. I LOVE LOOKING at the high end, but buy and USE the low end. And now pretty much have my fill.

[Sergio Natali]

Originally Posted by wlyon

The gun market is rather like the stock market. We have highs and lows. Personally I like to buy high and sell low so I have something to complain about. Bill

Bill

I beg to differ, the "actors" of any stock market are more or less always the same; instead what I think is that now we're witnessing a slow but constant change of the likings of the new generations of gun owners.
I hope I've made myself understood what I mean.

Best regards Bill and have a nice 2019 !

[Sergio Natali]

Originally Posted by gunbugs

I've bought a lot of guns over the years. I generally have not bought them because I thought I was going to "make money" on them. I buy nice stuff that I like. I rarely have sold anything. If, perchance, when I go to liquidate in a decade or two, that I happen to sell for more than I paid, that will just be icing on the cake. My "profit" is having the joy of owning nice guns, and being able to gain some tidbits of knowledge along the way.

I've never bought a firearm thinking to make money, out of experience I can tell you that guns are generally pretty poor investments.

[Sergio Natali]

[QUOTE=Edward Tinker;322219]I have to admit that over the years I have bought and sold a lot of items, and my main discovery is that if its been a few years, I can always make some money. Perhaps not a profit and I might lose money, but I bring some in... UNQUOTE

I did it too, until around a couple of years ago.

[QUOTE=Edward Tinker;322219]I don't belong to the 'all the old collectors are dying off and we're screwed cuz the new folks buy glocks' mindset, as I simply think new collectors come along who are interested in what we like. As an example, the doom and gloom over Colt Single Actions happened when I was a kid, and the end of collecting them hasn't happened. But a close friend has antique clocks and another other collectibles and its harder to sell than it used to be. Folks blame the internet, and its true, lots of items out there, and easier to find and compare... UNQUOTE

Younger generations don't have much money, and a serious collection demands quite a bit of it.
Many of the "old-timers", and I surely include myself in the number is in their 60's / 70's and more, and I don't see, at least not here, many youngish people interested in vintage firearms.

[John Sabato]

If I could go back in time, and do one thing regarding guns that I didn't do back in the 60's, it probably wouldn't be Lugers, but I would buy every Thompson submachine gun, and MP-38/40 that I could afford before 1968 and put them in a climate controlled environment (my safe) and wait until now to liquidate them. That would replace my 401K plan a couple of time over...

I remember that you could register and buy brand new Thompsons from Numeric Arms/Auto Ordnance for less than $600 back then. The WW2 souvenirs that were registered under the NFA of 1934 were even cheaper. The "appreciation" of those Class III firearms to today's value would buy me more than few nice Lugers today.

[Vlim]

What you see now in the EU gun market, and a scary development as well, is that EU-deactivated guns actually bring more money than original functional guns.

Functional full-auto's have been the subject of a witch hunt by the European Commission and it's getting more difficult to either own them, or sell them if you own them.

Deactivated guns are a nice option for people who want to display a complete outfit and need a gun as a prop to go with it. But for serious researchers, deactivated guns are useless.

I was surprised to see at the last Hermann Historica auction that reblued and non-matching P08 pistols were selling relatively well. I'm afraid these will turn up as deactivated paper weights eventually.

[Jasta2]

To me there are two types of gun buyers, shooters and collectors. Someone walking into a gun shop looking to buy a $500 Glock or 1911 clone I feel would have no interest in a $1,500 Luger in the case. Curiosity yes, but that's about it. Though I do know many that have a nice collection of say $500 handguns. Looking over online stores like Simpsons, or auctions like Gunbroker, it seems there is not much weakness in the selling prices of lugers. There must be plenty of Luger buyers out there because I have yet any dropping prices. Only you guys can speak on the prices of very collectable high dollar Lugers. Does a $5,000 or $10,000 Luger had much a change in value over the past few years?

[Vlim]

Its difficult to compare the EU and US gun market.

You cannot walk into a EU gun store and take a pick. It takes a lot of time to obtain a license and the license is never intended for personal defense, only for sports shooting, hunting or collecting. And its hard to obtain such a license.

This means that buyers need to take their time and carefully consider their choices because of all limitations.

Add to this the general decline in disposable middle class income in the EU, which is generally wiping out the middle class altogether. That is the main cause of the stuck markets in the EU.

Those who had a bit of money to play with in the past are now in survival mode, struggling to make ends meet.

[Sergio Natali]

Originally Posted by Vlim

Its difficult to compare the EU and US gun market.

You cannot walk into a EU gun store and take a pick. It takes a lot of time to obtain a license and the license is never intended for personal defense, only for sports shooting, hunting or collecting. And its hard to obtain such a license.

This means that buyers need to take their time and carefully consider their choices because of all limitations.

Add to this the general decline in disposable middle class income in the EU, which is generally wiping out the middle class altogether. That is the main cause of the stuck markets in the EU.

Those who had a bit of money to play with in the past are now in survival mode, struggling to make ends meet.

Exactly, Vlim seems to know what is really happening here, where, because of time passing by, and younger generations having less money in their pockets, the number of fireams collectors seem sadly to fade away.



IMHO