Quote:
Originally Posted by Dwight Gruber
I tend toward scepticism of extrapolating production numbers based on reported samples. On the current topic, in the absence of documentation, I simply do not believe the 15,000 figure.
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Dwight, your point is well taken. My earlier estimate of 15,000 was inherently based on the assumption that the reported examples of blank toggle pistols were from a random sample of the total production at that time. However, further reflection leads me to believe the reported examples are from a sample that is heavily biased toward attractiveness to GIs and collectors and therefore represts only a subset of the total production.
I have tried another method of data analysis. Using your Commercial list, I counted 169 reported blank toggles in the s, t, u and v series. If that number is a sample of an original number of 2500 such Lugers, it would represent a 7% "survival" rate. I have calculated survival rates for the Lugers of many police units and this number is reasonable, especially when compared with those of Landjägerei units. Consequently, I now agree with you that the blank toggle 29 DWMs are from the canceled Riff contract and that no other explanation is necessary. Thanks very much for challenging my earlier conclusion.