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Of course it was, he knew the asking price!
Still looks overpriced to me, S'allee took retail prices and then added another retail mark up to them.
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My purpose was to bring clarity to the pricing and determine if the pricing was "reasonable".
There were some who stated to me that the asking price was ridiculously high and so I wanted to see if that opinion was backed up by an analysis or just a gut-knee-jerk reaction.
My conclusion is that asking price was reasonable but, certainly not a "deal".
I was in no way trying to predict the sale price or persuade others to my opinion. I just state facts; though, of course, facts are sometimes relative as I will argue below.
My conclusion was based upon the following points:
The price at which something sells is an indication of its "value" and the actualized price becomes a point of comparison (a comp) for future sales if *publicly* known.
Though you may say that what any "given collector" will pay is NOT necessarily the "value", the sale, if pubic, becomes a statistic in future valuations and as such is viewed as the "value" of the item.
Many of the artillery's that I used as comps were sold up to 3 years ago.
Given that WWI Lugers are quite "hot" right now, I think that helps to explain why this particular Artillery came on to the public market at this time.
Actually, Simpson's profit margin may be as high as 30%. I conservatively factored in around 20%.
Since, the Luger sold very quickly, I tend to think the price and value of that Luger were closely aligned to the mind of a collector who seeks out only the best. This sale becomes a statistic for future valuations for Artillerys in this condition with these extras.
You seem to me to be saying that "actualized" retail prices do not represent value. I hope you understand that the price realized, as I pointed out above, is the "value" of the item at the time of the sale.
I understand that you think it was over-priced; however you offer nothing to substantiate your opinion.
As a serious collector of top condition Lugers, based upon my analysis, I believe the price was on the high end of the value-range but, not unreasonable given the offering. I myself was very seriously considered making the purchase but, was dissuaded by the keeper of the purse owning to my purchases at RIA in April.
Just as an aside, I have noted that many collectors consider today's prices as outrageously high. I have my theories on why this is. I came into this hobby about 4 years ago and I have become used to these prices as the market has changed substantially over the years. One reason for this, with respect to WWI Lugers, is that top-condition, collectible WWI Lugers are seldom offered for public sale. Thus when they are, they command top dollar. For collectors who have extensive networks of other collectors, they operate in a private market where prices are calculated by a different set of rules.
You can argue that Pre98 and Legacy are skewed toward the high side and you will find lots of folks on this board agree. But, these are "retailers" and the Artillery was offered on a "retail" site, the sale was public; therefore, the comps to determine value have to be made based upon the public market.
The valuation determination in the retail market and the asking price in a private collector-to-collector sale *may* certainly not be the same. But, I guarantee you, that even in private sale, the seller will use retail sales to determine price but *may* scale back their "ask"owing to the lower overhead of the private market and other factors that would have no bearing in a public market.
I believe that in all sales, the valuation of an item is a product of market, the desirability of an item, a buyer's means, and the buyer's perception of the item. Of course, there are more factors but these make the point.
Given all of these points, the price actualized is the value of this Artillery. Though, I can understand that some would dispute this.
Again, this is my 0.02USD opinion based upon my understanding of economics. I know that I may have missed something and am willing to be corrected.
Richard.