Time for more wild speculation. Production numbers at Erfurt should be considered in the context of the government procurement system and the times. In business management, we call this an open systems view. A closed systems view considers only the production capacity of the firm and other internal characteristics. It is possible defense budgets did not support more lugers from Erfurt or other priorities took precedence such that by 1914, Erfurt had made enough lugers for the govt to request further lugers only from DWM. It may have taken until late 1915 to issue additional contracts to Erfurt (now that war needs upped demand for pistols). Prior to 1914, DWM and Erfurt may have completed the rearming program for the military--the war in Aug 1914 would result in months of planning and new contracts to increase production of small arms to war levels. The war, in 1914, was not believed to be one that would last long.
By 1916, Erfurt was back making lugers because DWM could not keep up with govt desire for P08s. Erfurt was also busy making rifles and this may have delayed restarting P08 production for a few months.
The pre-1915 production pattern at DWM makes sense for a long-time luger manufacturer. The contract requests could be quickly filled so production was high at first, then decreased until the war came along and production again increased.
Erfurt's production pattern is consistent with that of a second contractor with other guns to make. Production slowly increasing.
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