[mrerick]

It's probably difficult to estimate the relationship between inflation and Lugers in general because of the number of variations, condition levels and specific interests of the marketplace.

Beyond just owning one Luger (which, of course, every gun owner should aspire to), each transaction is unique based upon demand, the knowledge of the buyer, supply of the specific firearm and market communications.

Rarity (in Lugers, based upon original supply, condition and variation) only makes a market if there is a consumer demand for the commodity.

I think that the Simson Luger is a good example of this. There were very few made compared to other manufacturers, few survived WW-II; they are distinctive variations (with their own toggle styles) and they are quite rare. They also tend to sell for a fraction of the price regularly given for the more prolific Krieghoff Lugers. What's the difference? Probably the association of Krieghoff with the Luftwaffe generating more interest and demand.

Obviously, the price of Simson and Krieghoff Lugers doesn't track with inflation.

One thing is clear. The preference for Lugers being as close to factory state as possible helps manage and develop the market, and helps accelerate the value of those few that survive that way.

So... I expect that the "shooter" Luger's value probably tracks with inflation. Possibly a little less since the market for firearms is limited by bureaucracy, restraint of international trade and market segmentation (what a dealer sells for, versus what a collector sells for, versus what a collector buys for, versus what a dealer buys for - in descending order of prices).

A collectible gun is likely to do a bit better than inflation, with an accelerated valuation based upon condition, rarity and market demand for that specific variation. Ultimately, the art of the "deal" is one buyer and one seller coming to agreement.