Using an online inflation calculator, it shows that at item worth $30 in 1900 would be worth $800 today. I don't know if it is accurate but this calculation "feels" reasonable. If you Google "inflation since 1900" you get lots ways to answer the question.
This suggests to me that Lugers appreciate over long periods at some rate above inflation. This makes sense, as Luger inventory is finite and must be decreasing due to oxidation, breakage etc. while overall wealth and the quantity of people with disposable income is increasing, as are education levels. I am assuming that wealth, disposable income and education are factors tending to create demand for this type of collectible - pure supposition, but reasonable IMO.
My personal guess is that Lugers appreciate in excess of inflation but at a lower rate than other investment benchmarks like T. bills. It would be fascinating to hear long-time collector comments on the subject. I would also guess that there are some smart dealers in collectible items (art, various types of antiques and so forth) out there who have a fact-based view on the matter, as would curators of museums with significant collections of historical firearms.
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