Folks give the goverment a lot more credit for competence and organization than it deserves.
Although now computerized, the ATF does not really have the means to track all the firearms transactions that take place in this country.
A couple of years ago the ATF NFA branch was forced to admit in court that their records were less than 50% correct/complete!! Now this is in regard to the registry and tracking of machineguns, destructive devises, silencers, etc.!!
They will never have the resources to come after your prized Luger. They only attempt thorough gun traces when its involves a high profile, high presure to solve criminal cases. Even then their success rate here is less than 50%
When you hear cases that were solved with a gun trace it usually involves the guy who bought a gun days before killing his wife, friend, etc. They have a limited geographic area to work in, they have their suspects name, they have the caliber of the weapon and a number of other factors to aid them. They are essentially working backward from an incident to its roots.
I'm not saying don't be leery of the ATF or any other goverment agency, for that matter. I'm just pointing out that unless they busted the meth lab in your basement, your gun collection is probably safe.
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